IF Blog

Tyler Cowen - Average is Over

In Average Is Over, George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen delivers good news and bad news with nearly equal enthusiasm. Joseph R. Stromberg

Tyler Cowen is an economist, writer and academic at George Mason University, and has been named one of the most influential economists of the past decade.

"There has never before more opportunity. The best education had never been better. The highest earners have never earned more," he begins. But for most Americans, wages have become lower over the past decade. There has been no net job growth in that period of time.

Average is over.

In a world of data, of measurement and information technology, people and organizations either do very well or not well at all. "The middle is becoming thinner. The tails are thicker," he explains, referencing the statistics. The share of national wealth taken home by labor is falling. Cowen runs through a series of slides to drive home the point that wealth no longer naturally accrues to the middle class. Thanks to public support, the poor, he says, are "somewhat" better off, the middle class are worse off, and the wealthy, much wealthier than before.

Two trends are driving economic developments today: "information technology and automation." It's hard to compete with computers, and mid- or low-level white collar jobs are rapidly disappearing.

For many technological sectors outside of consumer information technology, the pace of changes has slowed dramatically. The designs for general aviation planes, Cowen points out, date to the 1960s and earlier. The Concorde that flew over his Northern Virginia home when he was a younger man did not, as it turns out, point to an inviolable future of widespread progress. His home, built in the 1950s, functions well but has not as a technology been dramatically improved upon. Technological change outside of information technology is happening at the margins.

History will record that the post World War II era of expansion was a special period, the exception, not the rule. The future will be unevenly distributed, with middle class missing out on the country's relative wealth. Cowen believes that 20 percent of the population in the next decade will have incomes equivalent to today's millionaires.

"That's nice, but also troubling." Male earners ages 18 - 40 have been by far the biggest losers. Women, who increasingly are better educated, are doing correspondingly better. Home ownership is down. The savings rate among the young will be a problem for the country in future years, Cowen says.

Even though there is more access to information than at any time in history, "it's hard to be a flat out optimist." But from there, he pivots to the good news. He believes the economically prosperous people in the future will be those who "love ideas," those who can "intelligently apply the humanities." That sounds good to us.

Hearing Cowen talk, I was reminded of Daniel Pink's well-known 2005 Wired article, "Revenge of the Right Brain," which described how future individual success would be tied to value-added activities. Given widespread access to knowledge, the "meaning makers" would prosper.

For Cowen, the individuals with "thick skins" who generally understand technology (but are not necessarily technologists), those who exercise intuition and conscientiousness will succeed.

In the concluding question and answer session, Cowen says he believes an "obsessive" focus on science, technology, engineering and math, the so-called STEM degrees, is a mistake. "Remember that [Facebook founder] Mark Zuckerberg was majoring in psychology."

Cowen asks, rather, will those STEM graduate in what will undoubtedly be a technology-driven and automated world also understand people?

His advice: cultivate "the universals that cannot be outsourced." That will be the differentiator. 

Wayne

Clive Thompson - Smarter Than You Think

“We think in public,” Clive Thompson tells the audience at #IF14. Author of Smarter Than You Think: How Technology is Changing Our Lives for the Better, Thompson makes a compelling case that our new technology actually enables us to become better thinkers.

Critics often say that our over-connected world is causing us to be less mindful, but Thompson argues the opposite: it can improve our intelligence.

One of the strongest illustrations of how technology causes us to become more thoughtful is the audience effect, Thompson says. It happens when we Tweet, post on Facebook, or send text messages. “Presenting, talking, or communicating in front of an audience actually has an effect on us— we start thinking harder,” he says.

Thompson has seen this on the subway. “It’s interesting to watch someone struggle to compose a Tweet,” he says. “There’s a lot of thought put into it.”

Another way technology is improving how we think is by connecting us with other thinkers, making us part of an intellectual community. Students asked to post to Wikipedia for a class assignment ended up feeling a sense of accountability for their work — which, in turn, caused them to put more care into the final product.

“One of the great delights of our modern age is that it decreases our isolation,” Thompson says. When we think together, we think better.

Kind of like at IdeaFestival.

Till next year!

Hope Reese @hope_reese

@ideafestival
#IF14
#staycurious

Jason Padgett - We Need Every Kind of Mind

Jason Padgett, an aspiring mathematician and number theorist, is one of very few individuals in the world with acquired savant syndrome. He wasn't always this way.

He scraped by in high school by copying the work of his friends, and only graduated because one of those friends did his homework for him for a final.

Padgett: "That gives you an idea about how seriously I took school.... I had a very shallow life."

But one night outside of a karaoke bar, his life was changed dramatically. He was severely beaten in a mugging gone wrong.

"Immediately, everything," quite literally, "looked different." He explains that he began to see motion as a series of discreet events, much like how a mechanical flip book might display moving images.

One day, obsessively drawing fractals and Pi, he heard Daniel Tammet talk about synesthesia. Padgett realized that Tammet's experience was much like his, and that the experience of seeing the world as start and stop, as a series of shapes and numbers, was not unique. While the attack had left him with serious post-traumatic stress syndrome and in self-imposed exile away from anyone and everyone outside his home, the feeling he had for the first time in a long time was one of overwhelming relief. His condition had a name.

As he explained, "I didn't want to be that crazy guy who didn't know he was crazy."

He put some of his mathematical drawings online tagged with the word "synesthesia," and an expert on the condition contacted him. Functional MRIs later revealed that he had "conscious access," in his words, to parts of the brain that most humans "don't have access to." Physical changes in his brain could explain his attraction to Pi and his intense interest in mathematics.

Watching Padgett talk, it's clear that the recovery process, understandably, is ongoing. No longer that disinterested young man - his words - content to get by, he has a curiosity about the world around him. He explains that he feels much more deeply than he did in his old life. Moreover, he connects the interior landscape smeared with numbers and a developing skill in advanced mathematics to a person that has been changed for the better.

Describing why the Doppler effect is the result of compressing sound waves, which we hear as a higher pitch sound as they approach and a gradually lowered pitch noise as they expand and move away, he connects that phenomenon to special relativity. Using the wave-like property of light, astronomers, he explains, are able to measure "red shift" to approximate the immense distances in the universe. In a poetic turn, he says that if an observer were able to stand with him while he rushed away at the speed of light while another were to remain stationary, the blue shirt he was wearing today would appear red to person left behind, while his companion would continue to see blue. Relativistic physics are well established in that regard. But "in fact," he adds, "if everyone in the universe could see him" at that moment, his shirt would be every color.

His point: we need every kind of mind.

In the following question and answer session, Padgett tells the audience in evident disbelief that a movie of his life will be opening in the next year or so. Channing Tatum will play him. "And," he adds, a bit chuffed at the idea, "he is taking math classes to prepare for the role."

Wayne

Claudia Hammond - Time Warped, Our Minds Play Tricks on Us

As often happens at the IdeaFestival, we begin asking more questions than we can answer. Such is the case at this afternoon’s Time Warped session with Claudia Hammond.

BBC reporter and psychologist, Hammond has been mulling over the question of time-perception for quite a while (in real time). 

She opens today’s talk by describing what happened to Alan Johnston, a BBC journalist who was kidnapped and held hostage in Gaza for four months.

“When the gun was put to his head,” Hammond says, “time slowed down.”

Johnston had no watch or clock. He could not see the sun rise or fall. He began to contemplate the psychology of time.

We often hear how a moment can feel like an eternity. But this is not just a cliche— it’s real.

And even less extreme cases, Hammond reminds us, illustrate the point. A 30-minute lunch break with a friend will often feel rushed; if you’re spending that time waiting in line, it’s a different story.

Hammond is interested in the psychology of time. How does time FEEL? Our minds, she says, are vulnerable; time can play tricks on us.

Psychologists have shown ways that we can be manipulated.

In 2003, psychologists gave 50 people name tags and asked them to chat with others in the group. Afterwards, the subjects were asked to form pairs with the people they were getting along with. Then, the experimenter took half of the group aside, each person individually, and told them (falsely) that no one had selected them as a partner. The experimenters told the other half (falsely) that everyone had selected them as partner. Then, each person proceeded to work on a task individually.

The rejected group, perhaps not surprisingly, felt time pass more slowly. 

So emotional state has an effect on time-perception. Happy people perceive time moving faster. Depressed people feel time passing more slowly.

“We actively construct in our mind how much time is passing,” Hammond says. 

Emotions play into time-perception in another way; the experiences we find meaningful (as well as new experiences) resonate more deeply; we will feel time moving more slowly through those moments.

Are you paying attention?

#IF14
@ideafestival
#staycurious

Hope Reese @hope_reese

Debbie Millman - "Don't Waste Time"

At Debbie Millman’s presentation at IdeaFestival 2014, we are again reminded of the profound importance of failure in living a creative life.

When she was a young girl, Millman imagined a life “like Mary and Rhoda’s” on the Mary Tyler Moore show. She wanted to be a career-woman — little did she know just how complicated her own journey would be. 

Millman is now President Emeritus of AIGA, the largest professional association for design in the world. She is a contributing editor at Print Magazine and Co-Founder and Chair of the world's first Masters in Branding Program at the School of Visual Arts in New York City. In 2005, she began hosting, "Design Matters," the first podcast about design on the Internet. In 2011, the show was awarded a Cooper Hewitt National Design Award.

She is the author of six books on design and branding. Last year, an exhibition of her visual essays debuted at the Chicago Design Museum.

But before all that, Millman traveled a rocky road. Her work was met with many rejections. AIGA was initially a road block, and early on, Millman was humiliated by criticism she received on a 2003 weblog about her role in giving a design award.

Here at IdeaFestival, she narrates her career trajectory — with design, journalism, business, marketing, and leadership stepping-stones — to illustrate how each mis-step has created a new opening.

So often, we are our own worst enemy. Those who are successful, Millman says, “didn’t determine what was impossible before it was possible. Just the possibility of failing turns into something self-fulfilling.” 

Humans, Millman says, are like computers. “The computer will do absolutely nothing unless commanded to do so.” It’s only our perceptions of our abilities that limit us. 

Whether you’re starting out young, or reconfiguring your life mid-way, there is always time to “rewrite the possibilities of what comes next.”

“Do what you love.” Never put off your dreams. Never underestimate the “strength of imagination.” 

Millman puts it best:

“Don’t compromise,
 And don’t waste time.
 Start now,
 Not 30 years from now,
 Not 20 years from now,
 Not 2 weeks from now,
 Now.”

@ideafestival
 #IF14
 #StayCurious

Hope Reese

 

 


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