When it comes to predictions, reputation and ego count for a lot. Unfortunately, results don't.
It's easy to conclude that all hope is lost. But that would be wrong. ...What separated those with modest but significant predictive ability from the utterly hopeless was their style of thinking. Experts who had one big idea they were certain would reveal what was to come were handily beaten by those who used diverse information and analytical models, were comfortable with complexity and uncertainty and kept their confidence in check.
Making predictions more reliable is the goal of an ambitious new work. But if diverse information and a comfort with complexity and uncertainty are the criteria for better forecasting, we predict that IdeaFestival attendees will be better than most.
The speaker lineup and agenda for IF 2011 are coming soon! Stay tuned.